Global macro investor Lyn Alden has set high hopes for Bitcoin (BTC) as she predicts its price could reach a staggering $200,000 per coin within the next two years. In a recent episode of What Bitcoin Did, Alden discussed the role of Bitcoin in the current macroeconomic environment and why predicting its price destination is challenging. She believes that a price of $100,000 would be considered “disappointing” given the potential of the cryptocurrency.
According to Alden, Bitcoin’s price is still closely tied to liquidity, which she expects to trend upward between 2024 and 2025. While there may be some turbulence factors that could impact this trend, Alden remains convinced that the next two years will be more significant than the immediate one-year period. Historically, Bitcoin has experienced major price surges every four years, followed by corrections in the following year.
The pattern of Bitcoin’s price movements has been associated with macroeconomic tailwinds, particularly those created by dovish central bank policies. For example, after the Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark interest rate to 0.25% in March 2020, Bitcoin soared from $3,500 to $64,000 by April 2021. Market predictions suggest that the Fed will likely lower interest rates again in 2024, setting the stage for a bull market across all asset classes, including cryptocurrencies.
While it is easy to observe Bitcoin’s correlation to liquidity, deriving a specific price prediction is a much more complex task. Alden acknowledges that predictions ranging from $150,000 to $500,000 are all “entirely reasonable,” highlighting the multitude of factors influencing Bitcoin’s future value. Variables such as ETF approvals, capital inflows, nation-state shocks, and short-term negative liquidity periods all contribute to the uncertainty surrounding Bitcoin’s price.
In recent news, Bitcoin’s price experienced a slight dip from $45,000 to $40,800 following skepticism expressed in a Matrixport article regarding the approval of a Bitcoin ETF. However, former NYSE President Tom Farley predicted last November that once ETFs are approved, capital will “flood” into Bitcoin, suggesting a potential positive impact on its price.
Lyn Alden’s optimistic outlook on Bitcoin’s price suggests that the cryptocurrency has the potential to reach $200,000 per coin within the next two years. While Bitcoin’s correlation to liquidity and historical price patterns support this prediction, the presence of various unpredictable factors makes it challenging to forecast its exact value. As the cryptocurrency market continues to evolve and gain traction, investors can only speculate on the future of Bitcoin’s price with a cautious approach.