Cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen recently shared his insights into Bitcoin’s historical performance in September and its potential trajectory for this year. Cowen, known for his data-driven approach to cryptocurrency analysis, highlighted the challenges that Bitcoin has historically faced in September. While acknowledging that occasional green Septembers do occur, Cowen emphasized the negative price movements that have characterized this month in the past.
Cowen pointed out that Bitcoin has experienced six consecutive red Septembers from 2017 to 2022. The average return for Bitcoin in September has historically been around -6.6%, further adding to the unpredictability of the cryptocurrency’s performance. These historical trends raise concerns about Bitcoin’s performance in September.
Looking at Bitcoin’s opening price for September, which was just below $26,000, Cowen speculated that a 7% decrease could bring its value down to approximately $24,000. He also referenced the pre-halving year of 2019, where Bitcoin witnessed a 14% drop in September, potentially pushing its price down to $22,000. Although Cowen’s prediction of Bitcoin reaching $23,000 in September is not a guarantee, he highlighted the seasonal pattern, the downward momentum, and the recent monthly close below certain support levels as factors that make a dip to $23,000 plausible.
Cowen further discussed the average returns in all pre-halving years for the month of September, revealing a drop of approximately 17.7%. If history repeats itself, this could result in Bitcoin trading at around $21,500. These figures indicate a potentially challenging period for Bitcoin in September.
Cowen noted that Bitcoin had already experienced a 10% drop in August. While the long-term average for August is approximately 21%, when only considering the last two pre-halving years (2015 and 2019), the average drop is more modest at -11% to -12%. This suggests that Bitcoin may follow a similar pattern in September, potentially softening the blow to around $24,000.
As of now, Bitcoin’s price sits at $25,813, with a 24-hour price change of -0.99%. With a market cap of $502,654,681,515, Bitcoin maintains its position as the number one cryptocurrency by market capitalization. The strong trading volume of $17,603,174,408 in the past 24 hours indicates significant interest and activity within the Bitcoin market, contributing to its liquidity.
Despite the uncertainty surrounding Bitcoin’s future, Cowen pointed out the seasonality and existing downward momentum that make a test of the $23,000 level highly likely in the near future, potentially in September or October. Cowen discussed the cyclical nature of Bitcoin’s price movements, stating that it often alternates between bullish and bearish phases. During pre-halving years, Bitcoin tends to rise significantly during the first half and experience declines in the latter half, before entering a period of sustained growth.
Cowen also highlighted the potential for altcoins to regain momentum once quantitative easing (QE) returns and overall market sentiment improves. While Bitcoin may face challenges in the short term, the cryptocurrency market dynamics and the return of QE could have a positive impact on altcoins.
Cowen cautioned his audience to remain vigilant in September, a historically challenging month for Bitcoin’s performance. He stressed the importance of considering past data and market dynamics as indicators of a potentially difficult month ahead. Cowen’s data-driven analysis provides valuable insights for those navigating the turbulent waters of the cryptocurrency market. Investors and enthusiasts will undoubtedly watch closely to see if Bitcoin’s performance aligns with his predictions in the coming weeks and months.