The Ethereum price action has been disappointing for traders over the past few months, with a 23% decline over a 30-day period. This bearish trend has defied the expectations of many ETH investors who were hoping for a surge following the launch of Spot Ethereum ETFs. Despite this downturn, technical analysis indicates that Ethereum’s recent performance is not unusual, showing similarities to a pattern observed in 2016.
Looking deeper into Ethereum’s historical price movements, it becomes clear that the current situation may not be as unexpected as it seems. Popular crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen has been conducting ongoing analysis, noting that Ethereum’s price action in 2024 closely resembles its performance in 2016 when viewed on a monthly candlestick chart. The pattern of repetition is evident, with monthly candlesticks closing in a similar manner to those in 2016 for eight consecutive months.
In 2016, Ethereum experienced a massive rally of 19,000%, reaching $1,590 for the first time. If the current pattern continues to mirror that of 2016, investors can anticipate a green monthly close for Ethereum in September, followed by three consecutive bearish months from October to December. Should this repetition persist after December 2024, Ethereum could embark on a significant price rally above its current all-time high, bringing profitability to bullish investors.
At the time of writing, Ethereum is trading at $2,445, marking a 10.85% decline over the past week and a 23% drop over the past month. If the trend continues to mimic the 2016 pattern, Ethereum’s bearish momentum may persist through the end of the year. However, there is still hope for Ethereum bulls, as the cryptocurrency is hovering near a critical support level around the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level above $2,400. A strong bounce from this level could signal the beginning of an upward trend, potentially leading to a close above the monthly open by September’s end. An ETH surge above $3,000 towards $4,000 and $5,000 is still a possibility on the horizon.
While Ethereum’s current price action may be disappointing to some, a closer look at historical patterns and technical analysis suggests that there may be light at the end of the tunnel. By reflecting on past performance and remaining vigilant in monitoring key support levels, investors can better position themselves for potential future rallies in Ethereum’s price.
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