The trend of declining exchange balances for Bitcoin has been evident since mid-March 2020, marking a significant shift in investor behavior. Initially, over 17% of Bitcoin’s total supply was held on exchanges, reaching a record high. However, this trend has continued through Bitcoin’s 2021 bull run and into 2024. According to CryptoSlate’s analysis of Glassnode data, there has been a persistent decrease in Bitcoin holdings on exchanges. From Jan. 1 to Feb. 19, the amount of Bitcoin in exchange wallets fell from 2.356 million BTC to 2.314 million, the lowest since April 2018. Additionally, the percentage of Bitcoin’s supply in exchange wallets decreased from 12.03% to 11.79%.
When examining individual exchanges, nuanced trends and exceptions within the broader pattern become apparent. For example, Coinbase experienced a significant reduction in its Bitcoin balance, with over 20,000 BTC being shed from Jan. 1 to Feb. 19. This trend continued with consistent net outflows since the end of January. Similarly, Binance saw a notable reduction in its Bitcoin balance this year, with net outflows starting on Feb. 8. Kraken and OKX also aligned with this trend, recording net outflows and a significant decrease in their Bitcoin balances. However, there are exceptions to this general trend, such as Bitfinex and Bittrex, which have seen net inflows since mid-January. Bitfinex added over 16,000 BTC to its balance since the beginning of the year, while Bittrex saw a more modest increase of 3,000 BTC.
The decrease in Bitcoin balances on exchanges has been correlated with a bullish sentiment in the market. Investors withdrawing Bitcoin to personal wallets for long-term holding have reduced selling pressure on exchanges, contributing to price surges. For example, Bitcoin’s price surged from $44,152 on Jan. 1 to $52,000 by Feb. 19, despite a dip in mid-January. The launch of Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US has likely influenced these trends, along with other factors such as growing optimism among investors. The anticipation and introduction of these ETFs may have bolstered market sentiment, contributing to Bitcoin’s price rebound and rise in February.
While the movement of Bitcoin away from exchanges may be driven by market optimism, recent events such as the collapse of FTX and Celsius, as well as Binance’s legal challenges, have also played significant roles. These events have prompted users to withdraw funds from exchanges due to security and regulatory compliance concerns. As a result, there has been a heightened awareness around the risks associated with keeping assets on exchanges, leading to a shift towards personal wallets for enhanced control and safety.
As Bitcoin is removed from exchanges, the resulting reduction in liquidity could increase price volatility. However, this movement also demonstrates a firm conviction among investors in holding their assets. This trend sets the stage for potentially more sustained price growth as the available supply becomes increasingly constrained. Overall, the decline of Bitcoin on exchanges reflects a broader shift in investor behavior towards long-term holding and a more cautious approach to asset management.
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