The recent drop in Bitcoin price by more than -22% since March has caught the attention of Jacob Canfield, a trading mentor at Trading Mastery. Canfield’s analysis focuses on historical patterns observed in Bitcoin’s pricing trends, suggesting a potential further decline in the Bitcoin price. According to Canfield, Bitcoin has a tendency to retest yearly open levels, which can confirm either bearish or bullish trends, making it a consistent feature in Bitcoin’s market behavior.
Retesting Behavior Since 2017
Canfield points out that since 2017, Bitcoin has retested each year’s opening price within the year, with the exceptions of 2023 and 2024 so far. For example, the bearish retest of the 2018 opening BTC price happened right before the COVID-19 pandemic crash, and similar patterns were seen in subsequent years. The 2019 yearly open at $3,850 was retested during the 2020 Covid Crash, and the 2020 yearly open was retested within the first 3 months of the year, leading to a significant rally to $69,000 before the FTX collapse.
Potential Bottom Speculation
Canfield speculates about the potential bottom for Bitcoin in the coming months, highlighting the importance of technical indicators. The 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level aligns closely with the projected yearly open for 2024, indicating a possible support zone in the $38,000 to $42,000 range. Another crucial indicator is the weekly 200 EMA/MA Ribbon, which is converging around the 2024 opening price, suggesting a strong support level around that range. Canfield considers these indicators pivotal in determining Bitcoin’s future price movements. Despite the bearish outlook, Canfield’s analysis leaves room for different scenarios, emphasizing the cyclical nature of Bitcoin’s market dynamics and the role of historical precedents in predicting future trends.
While Canfield’s analysis suggests a potential future decline in the Bitcoin price, it also provides insights into possible support levels based on historical patterns and technical indicators. The closing price of BTC at $57,479 adds to the uncertainty in the crypto market, leaving room for further discussion and analysis within the community. As investors navigate through the volatility in the cryptocurrency space, it becomes essential to consider both historical trends and technical indicators to make informed decisions about Bitcoin’s future performance.
Leave a Reply