The lead analyst at Glassnode, James Check, has predicted that Bitcoin (BTC) will surpass the $250,000 mark in its current cycle. According to Check, the strong conviction of HODLers over the years will propel the price of Bitcoin to astronomical levels. In a recent interview with What Bitcoin Did, the analyst discussed the reasons why the Bitcoin market is more resilient now compared to previous cycles.
Check explained that the Bitcoin network has entered a “bull market distribution phase” following the launch of U.S. Bitcoin ETFs by BlackRock and Fidelity in January. This phase signifies that long-term HODLers who have held onto their coins for over 155 days are starting to sell their assets at a profit. This trend is usually an indicator of Bitcoin cycle tops. In previous cycles, such as the start of 2017 and 2021, this phase was followed by significant price increases that surpassed previous all-time highs within a short period.
However, due to the massive inflows coming from Bitcoin ETFs, Check believes that the current bull cycle could last much longer. He emphasized the importance of passive flows in sustaining the price of Bitcoin. Investment funds like BlackRock’s Global Allocation Fund have already shown interest in Bitcoin ETFs, collectively absorbing over $9.3 billion in net flows since their launch.
Check relies on on-chain metrics to analyze the health of the Bitcoin market. One key metric he mentioned is the “realized cap,” which represents the total value of all coins based on their last movement. This metric has been at all-time highs in recent months, indicating strong demand for Bitcoin. The analyst expressed confidence in Bitcoin reaching $250,000 this cycle, given the robust demand and market structure.
Check credited Bitcoin HODLers for pulling back the “slingshot” on Bitcoin’s price and absorbing the network’s circulating supply. He highlighted the importance of demand returning to the market through ETFs, which accelerates the price increase. The marginal bid for Bitcoin, according to Check, is what drives the rapid price movement in the market.
Check’s analysis paints a positive picture for Bitcoin’s future price trajectory. With strong demand, institutional interest, and robust market structure, Bitcoin could potentially reach new heights in its current cycle. Investors and HODLers alike are optimistic about the digital currency’s prospects, expecting significant gains in the coming months.
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