As around 20,000 Bitcoin options are set to expire today with a notional value of $1.35 billion, the market impact is expected to be minimal compared to previous weeks. However, a larger Bitcoin options expiry event is looming on June 28, with $6.7 billion in notional value derivatives expiring. Today’s BTC contracts have a put/call ratio of 0.49, indicating that twice as many long (call) contracts are expiring as shorts (puts). The max pain point is at $68,500, slightly higher than the current spot prices. Despite this, bulls still dominate BTC derivatives, with almost $1 billion in open interest at the $100,000 strike price on Deribit exchange. Strike prices at $75,000 and $80,000 have also attracted significant open interest, with $723 million and $807 million respectively.
Market Analysis and Volatility
Greeks Live, a crypto derivatives tooling provider, noted that despite significant macroeconomic data releases in the United States, the crypto market has underperformed. Mainstream coins have fallen, while altcoins are even further down. The market seems relatively quiet with fewer hot spots recently. Short-term implied volatility for Bitcoin and Ethereum has dropped below 50% and 60% respectively. However, upcoming news about an Ethereum ETF later this month could potentially impact market sentiment and volatility.
Ethereum Options Expiry Event Overview
Apart from the Bitcoin options, 200,000 Ethereum options also expired with a put/call ratio of 0.36, a max pain point at $3,600, and a notional value of $710 million. Despite little change in the total market capitalization over the past 24 hours, standing at $2.57 trillion, the markets have been on a decline with a 7.5% drop over the past ten days. Bitcoin was trading around $67,000 at the beginning of today after falling from around $69,500 earlier this week. Analysts have attributed the decline to Bitcoin miner profit taking. Chart analyst Peter Brandt has highlighted support levels in case of further market decline. Ethereum has seen a more significant drop this week, falling by 7.7% to a four-week low of $3,434 on June 13 before recovering slightly to $3,515 currently.
Overall, while today’s Bitcoin options expiry event may not have a significant impact on the market, the upcoming event on June 28 could potentially lead to greater volatility. Investors should closely monitor market sentiment and key price levels to navigate through these uncertain times in the crypto market.
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